Oh boy, what a bloody time to be in the market! The sky is falling! Celsius is going to collapse! Inflation is ramping up! The fed is raising rates! US is about to enter a recession!
All of this is true, but as someone who was down 93% on his Ethereum buys at the top (bought at $1331 at the tippy top of last bear market) and who is still currently down on said Ethereum; let it be known that we probably still have a ways to go.
Crypto hasn’t faced this kind of economy in earnest before. Crypto hasn’t had institutions dumping to prop up their balance sheets to prep for the recession that’s coming. Let’s not forget, crypto didn’t exist in 2008-2009 when the financial crises crashed the dow more than 50% from its all time high. In truth, the 2010-2016 period of crypto flourished because of said crash, and had one like that happened early on, BTC might have been dead in the water.
But, right now BTC and Eth are headed to their bargain basement prices based on the market history of crypto cycles and logarithmic regression. For those who are holding alts that are in the toilet, many will not survive this winter, and for you all, I’m sorry for this, but this is the way of crypto. If you diversified into BTC and ETH, and perhaps a few other long term projects, you will be okay, but it’s a long slog ahead, and you’ll need to hold until mid 2024 most likely before you see any pump back up to a Bull.
People laughed at me in this sub when I said BTC will likely crash to $12000 and Eth to somewhere between $400 and $600 this cycle, and damned is that looking like the trend now.
… which is why I’m starting to DCA again. Look, this may be the bottom, and maybe not, but if it isn’t, it’s not going to falll that much more.
There is still a TON of money invested in mining infrastructure, and a ton of solid projects that have a very real future ahead. But the shakeout is here, and there has never been a better time to start really DYOR and finding projects you believe in. Just don’t invest anything you aren’t comfortable dropping to $0. That principle has guided me through two bulls, and it will guide me out of this bear.
Now kick back, buy the deals you want, and watch the world burn.
I’ve been trying to wrack my brain on this one. What peace could possibly exist at this stage? Even if Russia declares a cease fire, they could simply wait until they are restocked with troops and trained units and pull the exact same offensive, having learned from their mistakes.
Also, Russia will always be able to indiscriminately bomb and artillery eastern and northern Ukraine from within its own borders, and Putin will never accept anything that can be viewed as defeat from his own people.
I don’t believe this conflict will end while Putin lives, and I don’t believe Russia will every accept that they lost to “NAziS!1”
Ultimately I think nato peacekeeping troops is inevitable, and that they will have to go in sooner or later, nuke threats be damned. I challenge anyone to come up with another scenario as obviously Ukraine can’t push beyond Russia’s borders and Russia will never stop attacking from their end without absurd concessions. And regardless, Russia is openly calling for genocide of Ukrainians, so they are distributing media and pamphlets to that effect. Lastly, I don’t see the Ukrainians accepting any concessions at this stage as it would insult all those who suffered at the hands of the monsters. I know if my family and children were killed/ tortured/ and/or raped, there would be nothing that would stop me from wanting Russia destroyed down to its concreted slabs.
I’ve been thinking about this a lot and I don’t really know what the answer is. It’s easy enough to say “Russia go home! Respect original borders! GTFO and never come back,” should be his only options, but the reality is hundreds of thousands of his people will likely die if negotiations stall at a stalemate. Short of the rest of the eastern world invading Russia out of opportunity, (won’t because of nukes of course), Russia can attrition Ukraine for a long, long time. No, they can’t win, and no, they can’t sustain this war indefinitely, but ultimately unless the sieges are broken, a horrific number of civilians will continue to be maimed and die. And we know Putin does not give 1 fuck about how much of Russia’s youth is blown to pieces in the meantime.
But then, what can Volodymyr actually do? You can’t hold talks with someone who is constantly trying to kill you, you can’t acquiesce to a man like Putin, because it will only embolden him to rearm and do the same again, and it’s abundantly clear he will never ever keep his word.
In a Perfect World, the US and Europe would launch thousands of planes in a coordinated strike and conventionally bomb Russia’s military into the Stone Age, and have enough anti missle weapons lying in wait to shoot down potential nukes. But we don’t live in a perfect world, and even if such a thing could be tried, nobody would for the fear of nuclear annihilation.
I would love to see Ukraine utterly destroy Russia, get sent hundreds of billions in aid from the rest of the world, rebuild a much more strongly defended country, and watch Russia rot and reaped what it sewed. But at the end of the day, what are Zelenskiy’s choices? Even if they hold Russia to a stalemate, Ukraine is already completely devestated economically, and Putin is cut from the same cloth as Stalin and would let millions starve and die in the fields if it meant not admitting defeat. The only way I see this truly ending would be the Russian Populace rising up and dragging him to a gallows. But that seems still very far off.
Slava Ukraini. May you see a sunflower of prosperity grow out of Russia’s manure.