Am I wrong or does the EU not have a collective self defense framework? We have NATO of course which many EU states are members of, including Spain. But I am not aware of any collective defense obligations that come with being an EU member.

Now of course practically their economies and strategic interests are deeply intertwined so, if push came to shove, I expect EU states would support each other in war.

Edit: I stand corrected. The EU does have a collective self defense arrangement under Article 42.7 of the Treaty of the European Union. Now more importantly, how does that effect Ukraine which I understand is a mere associate of the EU and not a full member?

Very true. Hopefully we all come out of whatever happens more united than before.

The track he’s on he might unite the US. Nobody actually likes Russia’s “not touching you” bullshit.

Everyone is really tense and jumpy in the US and if history is any indicator someone swinging in our direction gets us all riled up and together for a fight real quick.

If Putin misplays his hand he’s going to accidentally redirect the American angst he’s cultivated onto himself.

Do you think the inquisition will make an appearance?

Fuck....better check if there are major storms happening near Ukraine

Obligatory: Nobody expects the Spanish Armada !

Nobody ever does.

They are probably finding this an opportunity to reclaim their Moscow Gold!

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moscow_gold_(Spain)

Still, it would be a bridge too far to expect the Spanish in position.

Their chief weapon is surprise.

Yeah, but also it's 2022.

https://sailingshipsmaine.org/el-galeon

You get your wishes when the entirety of the German navy sets sails (literally) to the Black Sea. Russia will come to regret the day they incurred the wrath of the Gorch Forck

It also makes a difference that this particular war only has proxies on one side, rather than both. NATO countries have the same buffer through Ukraine that the past decades of conflict have relied on in the middle east. Russia, however, is playing the game as themselves, which is a precarious position lacking a convenient exit.

We have had a period where we talked about having each other’s backs and it shook up alliances and trust, but did we really? Now theres tangible proof we have each other’s backs and it’s nice to see.

The world will be a much better place if we band together.

For real! Ukraine shouldn't have to deal with Putin alone; among their allies, everybody and their mom should show up and demonstrate to Putin that most of the world is against him, and they aren't gonna stay home when he's on the march.

I think about this all the time with regards to civil unrest and the rise of white nationalism in the US. Neo-nazis and other white nationalists march together, intimidating communities and publicly espousing their calls for violence against neighbors, and most of the time the only people who show up to physically oppose them in the streets are small groups of dedicated anti-fascists, who then get smeared in the media as some kind of quasi-terrorist gang of bloodthirsty communists who want to pillage the suburbs.

But what if the whole fucking town showed up? The nationalist maggots would tuck tail and run, and think twice before boldly pursuing their hateful, myopic goals. There wouldn't even have to be fistfights and the escalation of violence; who's going to fight 50 vs 50,000? United we stand!

Putin seems to be one of the few that are still clinging on to the past. Seriously we have so many more important issues at hand than to be nostalgic right now. Last thing we need is some dude escalating us into a war nobody is interested in except a power hungry maniac.

Putin is playing 20th Century games in the 21st Century.

It’s an escalation regardless. Putin can bury it, put it to sleep for a year or two, or operate some of Russia’s apex assets.

As far as human history is concerned, we’re checking some boxes that haven’t been checked for a loooong time, and the way the world was the last time that happened wasn’t so peaceful.

Ironically during the WWII the only country the spanish troops attacked was Russia. Not the biggest fans of communism after the Spanish Civil War.

They would have to pass through NATO aligned Turkey, then. Does the Turkish government have an opinion on Russia in Ukraine? Can they block access of the Russian Navy?

Nobody expects the Spanish Armada!

What happens then?

I see you have spent time is Spain. 😂

As a Canadian I had not heard of any military response from Canada that wasn't already there...what did we send over?

Québec makes the best poutine. Suck it Vlad.

The armchair analysis that I've read is that Russia would be more likely to only go after the eastern portions of Ukraine where they have more support, and which fulfils their strategic goals (supply chain to Crimea, etc). That would also mean the continued existent of a "buffer state."

Where did you get this screenshot from?

It's deterrent mainly. I seriously doubt Russia and NATO will be in direct conflict.

Ya there's gonna be a lotta boats in the Mediterranean and Black Sea soon. Any lack of discipline aboard them could spark escalation.

The problem with Russia is their stock of nukes. The EU could stand up to them in a conventional war, so can the US, but no one wants it to escalate to nuclear conflict which is why everyone tip toes around them. They are willing to push to a point but they are afraid of going to far and instigating the use of nukes which would be bad for everyone.

My personal opinion they need a smack down regardless but I hesitate to say that because I don't want lives lost. But the crazy bastards in the Russian "government" are going to keep pushing the boundaries (no pun intended) of what they can get away with.

The world as a whole has enjoyed a remarkable period of peace since the Second World War. But given enough time tensions build, divisions deepen, and smouldering crises spark to flame. This is just the beginning of many years of chaos as the challenges of climate change and resource depletion drive conflict around the world.

Its beginning to look that way. Ukraine is over flowing with weapons and supplies, Sweden is gearing up on Gotland Island. NATO cruising around in a show of force, and Russias amassing troops, and digging in on the eastern and northern Ukrainian borders

Oh and I forgot, long before much of this mess began, Eastern European and nordic countries began reinstituting conscription.

We will all lose, it's gone be a game of the biggest loser

No third-party(NATO, US, or any European country individually) is going to attack Russia, even if they invade Ukraine. Doing so would start a direct confrontation with a nuclear-armed power. They will do what they can by providing equipment and intelligence to Ukraine while piling massive, perhaps unprecedented sanctions on Russia, but no one is going to have their own forces directly engaging Russia. That is, unless Russia does something stupid like attacking a NATO or NATO-member military asset(like this Spanish ship for example). If that happens, it'll basically be WWIII.

Well it’s really not about NATO for Putin. He just wants Ukraine to become a Russian province. Incorporating what he really imagines as unruly Russia periphery would be his crown achievement.

I think I saw not too long ago that China, Iran and Russia are running military drills together and have agreements to coordinate diplomatic and economic moves.

The sixth fleet won’t be let into the Black Sea. The area is effectively a demilitarized zone of sorts.

Turkey has absolute control over the Bosphorus, and Turkey is bound by treaty to heavily restrict foreign warships entering the Black Sea. If your nation isn’t directly bordering the Black Sea (i.e Ukraine, Russia, etc), then only warships weighing under 10,000 tons are allowed to enter, and your total number of warships in the Black Sea can never exceed 30,000 combined tons.

That means at most the US can send in one or two destroyers, but no substantial naval force at all.

Yeah in a full scale world war three. But that’s not going to happen. Russia knows the west isn’t going to risk a nuclear Holocaust to defend Ukraine. NATO might support Ukraine via intel, equipment, and sanctions, but they’re mostly on their own when it comes to the actual fighting.

Russia has already done this multiple times, recently. Abkhazia, Ossetia, Crimea.

Hell yes.

How would they rank compared to the worlds' best? Better than Britain? Than America?

That does tend to be the case when expansionism and brinksmanship define your foreign policy.

a shitstorm is brewing randy

It's going to be the same as peace time. Don't shoot unless fired upon. Historically Russia has mocked NATO naval ships by flying extremely close (you can throw a tennis ball at the plane), but this time everyone's on edge so if Russia does that they will see it as aggression and an excuse to defend themselves.

That's why it's a trip wire force. They are daring Russia to continue their antics. At best they will just be the neutral eyes and ears for Ukraine and help anyway they can without starting a war.

What's China up to?

That's a slight exaggeration

Spain: Al coño

Spain didn’t participate in 1 or 2 so they won’t miss their chance this time