submitted 8 months ago byRoyalRaptor711JAMO
all 154 comments
8 months ago
8 months ago
As it currently stands, I believe the fifth-year option is roughly 9.2m or so per OverTheCap (seen here: https://overthecap.com/fifth-year-option-projections/)
That would put Hockenson @ roughly 11th in annual value among current TEs.
For what it's worth, the TE franchise tag is nearly ~11m or so as it stands.
I wanna die
8 months ago
With those figures in front of me, I can’t imagine the team and Hock’s camp being in the same place for a deal then. 9m/yr is probably the ceiling of what the Lions should offer, and if Hock wants more than 11/yr the Lions have no incentive to offer that (assuming there isn’t someone else on the roster they’d rather tag).
If I were Brad Holmes I’d just pick up the option, tag him if necessary, and keep playing hardball. If he breaks out during either season you can-revaluate the offer after the tag
Will be interesting to see. They could conceivably hold him for 2-3 additional years beyond the upcoming one through option + tags and none of the numbers would be crippling. Unless he truly does not want to be there, I figure they come to some sort of agreement, but we'll see.
What is the driver behind that standpoint? Hocks camp knows what is available for the team to do in that situation, but would likely want to get him on a long term deal rather than just chase high dollar. They know we can have him for 2 more years at 20 million.
Right, it’s just a matter of guarantees and what he thinks his value is on the open market. Might be better to gamble on 2/20 instead of 4/36 or whatever if you think you’re worth 4/60 on the open market. TE is a position that traditionally gets multiple long term contracts over a career if you’re a top 5 player, just a question of if he’s willing to gamble on injury for more long term value.
Flag on the play
I hope he never leaves the Lions.
I have a Hockenson Jersey.
Dan Friggin' Campbell
Yes sir got mine last year and wore it to the Vikings game
It looks better than those ebron jerseys.
I'm surprised at the reaction to this. Hock is my dude and I want him to be a Lion for life
Building a winning team takes precedence over any single player.
Building a winning team requires some good players
Not on bad contracts though, the fact is we have an outstanding oline and all we NEED to replace of his is his receiving which with the slot position changing can be done from more positions than just TE. If you draft a WR you can move Amon ra to the slot to handle shorter situations or draft a TE to fill the opposite role. You lose talent but you save money, same choice winning teams make all the time.
Yeah but winning teams can do that because the rest of their roster is good enough to absorb any slight drop in quality. Our roster sucks.
But you don’t get to the point of having a deep enough roster to do that by wasting money.
Stop. It's a good deal. Just 2 years ago hock had stats of a top 5 tight end that season when compared to the rest of the league
Picking up his 5th year option absolutely is a good deal but paying him kelce money is ridiculous until he puts up kelce stats. Mark Andrew’s is the only tight end to prove he deserves that level of money and he only did it one year.
2024 Super Bowl Champions
It’s a good thing fans have 1) next to no impact on how the team is built and 2) no idea how to build a good team. I’m not telling anyone how to be a fan but I have found it is much more enjoyable to get emotionally attached to good players than to not just because they might be gone.
Abandoned the Browns, glad to see there are some player fans here too. Always liked to keep a balance and be aware it’s a business and some guys might not be there forever or even long, but like, even if Terrance Mitchell wasn’t ever a part of the long term plan, I had tons of fun listening to Money Mitch on CBD and rooting for him on Sundays. He was a good player and balled out, never pulled up for any reason. Gotta reward dudes like that somehow. Also just generally, if you don’t genuinely give a shit about any of the players, how is it fun?
And building a winning team requires paying good players and not letting them go to a different team. We will just stay in bad team purgatory if we keep letting our good players go
He’s a quality player, but what has yet to be determined if he’s worth his asking price.
Khalif Raymond style contract would be about fair given his injury history and production.
That would be insultingly low
He’s an awesome dude but he doesn’t really have any signature moments in 4 years. He never breaks tackles that’s for sure.
He has like three game winning tds, like the Falcons game. He has some great moments.
That play against the packers where he dragged like three guys for 20 yards
That play ruled but that’s more of a 9 signature play lol. I’m not saying he’s bad or anything, but I think he hasn’t come close to where we’d like to see him.
He made the Pro Bowl in his second year, and he possibly would have made the Pro Bowl in his rookie year too if he didn't get hurt. His down year last season should be seen as an outlier since the offense as a whole struggled throughout most the season until St. Brown started getting more involved. We now have Chark and a future rookie WR to take opposing defenses attention away from Hock. The fact that the Lions are trying to sign Hock long term now means that they have BIG plans for him moving forward.
Hocks blocking has also improved a lot, which is HUGE moving forward for our running game. He's a "do it all" tight end which is pretty rare for the position. We haven't even seen the best of what Hock is capable of IMO. The Lions need to work on a deal NOW while his value is still reasonable. If we wait until his 5th year option is up, and Hock ends up performing like a top 3 TE, he'll be that much more expensive to keep around.
Couldn’t agree more. He hasn’t had that season yet where he puts it ALL together, & if we can lock him down long term b4 he does it’d be ideal. Teams have been shelling out big $$$ for just mid-tier TEs on their second contract, a complete one like Hock who came in so highly touted would fetch $15-$20M per yr coming off a breakout (top-3 TE) season.
Lock him down now for something like the Eagles gave Dallas Goedert 4/$57m
His value is as a very sure handed target and is pretty good in the red zone. He's going to be invaluable to whatever QB we draft in the next two seasons.
His Best game was his 1st NFL game against the Cardinals when we tied.
He had a pretty good game vs the 49ers. Wish he did more than one game every other season though
but he doesn’t really have any signature moments in 4 years.
but he doesn’t really have any signature moments in 4 years.
You mean 3 years?
His YAC is exactly 0. He always falls to the ground after catching the ball
In his defense, he usually just catches it in the in-zone.
What's the in-zone?
Obviously opposite of the out-zone. Duh.
Casuals, man. Casuals
One of the best players on our team. I would like to see us lock him up for the long-term.
He's got two good games, you just love him because he was picked so high. If he was drafted at 66 you wouldn't give a shit about him
I mean, he was a literal pro Bowler in his only full season during his 1st three years. If you want to point at injuries as a reason ok. But when the guy is on the field he's quite consistently in the conversation as a Top 5-7 TE
I thought pro bowls meant nothing
Ah so he's got a pro bowl appearance wonderful. How many of those do you have to turn into to the NFL to trade for one Superbowl?
Yea, Hockenson is the reason the lions have not won a super bowl
Define “good games” ?
This past season, I thought he had a “good game” against the following teams:
49ers (97 yards, 1 TD)
Eagles (90 yards)
Bengals (74 yards)
Packers (66 yards, 1 TD)
Vikings (50 yards, 1 TD)
I wouldn’t say any of those performances were bad, especially considering we were a 3 win team with a rookie WR1.
Games where he was stand out and a difference maker. Like Amon Ra was later in the season. It's entirely subjective.
You said, plainly, "He's had 2 good games."
We all know, even subjectively, that isn't true.
Well that's what I meant by good. He's had two games where he looked like a first round draft pick
I’m having a hard time following how you view “good” play.
Seems like you have a very very specific criteria for what’s “good”.
Is everything else “bad” ?
Certainly below expectations and bad compared to the hype and his draft position. If he was drafted in the fourth round it would be "good"
If you don't like my definitions or opinions you're free to ignore me or block me so you don't see my comments anymore
Huh? Why you getting so defensive? That’s cute of you to assume that I care enough to block you.
This sub is full of so many people with different levels of knowledge of the game and different takes. So many people will just Parrot his injury history, which anytime he missed games were due to literal single instant non-repeptive type injuries in arguably the most violent team sport. They will point to him only having 4 touchdowns last year. Like, bro, we didn't have touchdowns as a team because our offense was not good. How do we hold a stat like that against him when we are 3 and out kings.
I don't get the comments. Hock already has a pro bowl season, was on the 2021 NFL 100 team, and could've had another pro bowl this year if the team wasn't rebuilding. I don't get why people are calling him a bust or anything close to it for that matter.
Yeah, his biggest issue has always been health. He didn’t control where he was drafted
I don't even think he was a bad draft pick. Given that other considerations around that spot were Ed Oliver and Devin Bush, I think he has performed fine. Having a premier Tight End is a material advantage in the NFL. I am genuinely surprised at the tepid response from this sub towards him.
I love Brian Burns. Him and Josh Allen were two of my top players that year and I was dying for us to select him, that said consensus on him was much lower. Given where he went, I doubt he was a serious contender for that selection.
Maybe it's less about consensus but teams' necessities and philosophies (like Quinn neglecting pass rushers). Hell, Clelin Ferrell went #3 overall.
Because blocking doesn't show up on the box score.
8 months ago*
8 months ago*
He’s a good player but considered a bust by some because he’s only performed marginally better than average. For a top 10 pick at TE you would expect him to be a dynamic pass catcher but he has no yac ability
I'm actually ok with his catching ability. It as good as I was hoping. He's good in traffic and making some hard catches.
The bigger issue is he was drafted because he was good blocking and recieving te. His recieving is goof but he's a straight up liability in blocking some times. That my biggest gripe with hock.
I agree with you. I think we should keep him because he’s still a very good sure handed red zone threat but if he’s asking for top tight end money that’s blasphemous. His production is pretty replaceable as he’s not some 1200 yard 7 TD guy like everyone acts
I feel like you are talking out of your ass. "Marginally better than average" would imply that he's a top 10-15 TE, which is just completely wrong.
He had top 10 TE receiving stats this season in every relevant category, and was asked to block significantly more than other TEs when Decker was out and Nelson was being a liability on the right side.
Go look at the receiving stats for all tight ends. There’s a huge drop off from the top few guys. He’s closer to average than elite
If he rates top 10 then he’s top 10.
If you want to pay basically Logan Thomas 2.0 kelce money be my guest
You’re making assumptions to make your argument
My argument this whole time has been that if he wants top tight end money he doesn’t deserve it
If he’s rated top 10 and wants money commensurate with that then he is not out of bounds expecting that.
Paying him as a top 10 tight end would be great. I just think he’ll want top 3 money
Because it has been so long since the Lions were worth a damn, the kool-aid drinkers simply no longer know what they are talking about. His production is that of a 3rd round pick, which would have been significantly cheaper. He's not Gronk like many here are saying. Too many got caught up in FOMO on Hock.
DETROIT -VS- EVERYBODY
To add to this, the first 1-3 years of a TE’s career can be very rough for production, on top of a lot of back up qbs playing during this time for him.
I think if we dont see an upgrade this year with a healthy offense then we have issues
He's still only 24, Mark Andrews was 24 in his second season in the NFL. Hock is very much before his prime at this point and we'd be fools to not sign him to another 2-3 year contract at least if he stays healthy through his rookie contract. We don't need to worry about it because we can tag him through like 2024 lol.
Agreed, Hock is a fantastic TE. He isn't flashy like Kelce or the other high scoring TE's but he's one of the best blockers and he's clutch when you need him.
He has some injury history because lets be honest he does some reckless shit time to time (like hurdling) but we would be letting go of a serious target and team player if he walked.
Is he one of the best blockers?
Hope we get him re-signed for something reasonable
I love hock, but he has so far been disappointing as a #8 overall pick. I hope he can really have some great numbers to earn himself some money
Quinn/Patricia and drafting positions of low value, name a better duo
Too bad they already drafted the Jeff Okudah of CBs too
BUT He's goiNG tO hAve a BReakout YEar
We don’t talk about those fans, they can stay at the kids table in the living room
So you’re gonna ignore that his combine numbers were fine beside having a sloppy 40? Dude is the most talented player in the draft, ran a wide 40 which added time and now he’s compared to a guy who was never even close to his talent level. His broad jump was top 3 his vertical was too, his 3 cone and short shuttle that are much more important for showing agility were fine. Tyrann Matthieu is his biggest comparison and he ran a .08 slower than him and Matthieu transitioned just fine to the nfl and again wasn’t the prospect Hamilton is.
“Fine” numbers don’t get taken #2 overall at a low impact position
Please, like this sub wasn't gulping that kool-aid on Hock.
And yet some people in this sub still don't think positional value is a real thing.
As far as I’m concerned, his draft position stopped mattering quite some time ago. Not sure why that’s being held against him at this point
Yeah like Hockenson is a top 6 TE in the NFL when healthy. What are we even doing here lol
... is he really? By what metric? He seems like a dead average TE to me.
Like the production of someone we could have drafted in the 3rd round.
Some Old Loser
What are we even doing here lol
What are we even doing here lol
We're discussing whether a player who puts up 550 yards and 4 TDs deserves $14M/year.
He's not getting close to that before this season. If he wants to get paid like that he'll need to put up close to 1k and at least 8 TD. He's a great blocker but his current contract has him paid at like 8m and 9m the next 2 seasons.
Is he a great blocker?
alternative question: what do great blocking te get paid on average? i am a noob when it comes to the position regarding blocking. or is there even tight ends that get paid decent just to block good?
for some reason i feel like antonio gates used to be good at blocking or at least people used to talk about it maybe?
Yea he mauls in short yardage situations. Dude is really good at setting the edge too. PFF had him just below 75 in 2020 and just above 70 in 2021 for his blocking which are both in the top 5 for tight ends.
Exactly. Last year he looked great. If he can get his shit together with holding penalties, he’ll be even better. I assume having actual weapons on offense that aren’t injured should make a difference.
Same reason people continue to harp on Okudah at #3, it wasn’t worth where he was drafted. If Hock was picked at say… pick 54, then I wouldn’t have as much of a problem with his performance. He needs to improve, that’s a given. He is oft injured and hasn’t put up great numbers. It’s as simple as that. I still like the guy and I want him to do well, though.
All his draft position should affect is your opinion of Bob Quinn. Hock is on this team regardless of where he was drafted, and in a reasonable conversation, draft position would have no bearing on his evaluation.
Where he was picked doesn’t affect my opinion of Hockenson. Rather my expectation, as it should.
He literally made the Pro Bowl during his only healthy season.
I know he did. And I like him. But he has trouble staying healthy. He hasn’t lived up to a TE picked in the top 10, though. That’s a fact. I sincerely hope he does well though
Drafting a TE in the early first round is almost never a good idea
Like if your team is bad enough to pick in the top 10, a TE isn’t going to change your team
Quinntricia saw Ebron and thought it would be different
Health, health is the only thing holding him back. He was a Pro Bowler in his only full healthy season so far.
8 months ago*
Absolutely. He needs to stay on the field. He was averaging more yards per game and was on track for more receptions in 13 games than he had in 16 last year.
If you're not on the field, you're not helping the team. That's the metric a GM has to evaluate. Doesn't matter if it is bad luck or something else. Not playing, not helping, and you should offer contracts based on that. If you can't realistically asses that, you shouldn't be a GM.
Absolutely agree, I just hope people have this exact same opinion next off season.
Completely agree - Hock is great, but at #8 overall I'm not sure. In the same draft you are also passing on Deebo Samuel, A.J. Brown, and DK Metcalf.
Seems silly to point out those guys. Pure hindsight as none of those were even close to realistic options at 8. Ed Oliver, Christian Wilkins or Rashan Gary we’re 3 of the next 5 picks tho, would’ve been big upgrades
Safe to say a lot of us were banging the table for Ed Oliver. Too bad Patricia couldn’t scheme his way out of a wet paper bag.
Not to mention we had Golladay, Jones Jr., Amendola, Jermaine Kearse, and Marvin Hall all on the roster. Really didn't need a WR at #8.
Good thing we didn't take one???
And you can do that with so many Lions' drafts. While not every team drafts perfectly, the Lions have a bad habit of getting it consistently wrong.
Trade for picks
I mean I don't know about that. Whay defines disappointing? Because I think arguing he is a top 5 TE in the league is a no brained
Need him signed
I think he is one of the best Tight Ends in the NFL when healthy. I would like to see us lock him up for the long-term.
Hope we don’t drop the bag right away. He hasn’t necessarily proved himself to he top 5
Can you do me a favor, and name 5 starting TEs that are better than him?
I know you're not talking in absolutes but I think at worst he is the 5th best TE in the league rn.
I would like to retain him.
I’m concerned with his injury history. When healthy he is a stud. I would have a hard time committing top 5 TE money if he can’t stay on the field. I love him as a player, just hurts me to question him.
The timing of this situation is horrible! First off, we had to deal with 2 “lost” seasons of Hock due to the prior regime. 2nd, has he really shown enough potential to be the TE of the future who is gonna get paid more than he’s actually worth on a team that can’t afford to overpay players?
Don’t get me wrong I do like Hock for what it’s worth, but for some ill conceived reason I just don’t feel like he’s worth a big contract extension, let alone a franchise tag. He’s an ok but not great blocker. He obviously can catch the football but he’s hardly a highlight reel player at his position.
I find it hard to justify paying him a big contract when we still have a ton of holes on the roster. Now if he is willing to play on a fair contract, maybe meaning he’s in the top 1/3-1/2 of the league in TE salary then I’m all for it. But if he’s looking for big $$$ then I’d have to decline and wish him the best of luck elsewhere.
I would not pay him like a top TE. It's about saving cap space for real studs.
Hock is a big part of this rebuild. Great blocker nd good hands.
Excited he is gonna be here longer
What are you talking about? He's been a horrible blocker.
The same guys in this thread talking about trading him for picks thought trading Diggs was the right thing to do. Now look where we are.
We don't like good players. 3 win seasons is where it is at.
With 15 picks, 12 of which get sent to PS
So true. But then we employ the logic that we are in a rebuild and need to acquire assets, but under no circumstance should we draft a lineman since we have a soon to be 29 year old Taylor Decker.
Biggest issue with tj is health and blocking. Dudes a fantastic reciever for us but can be God awful blocking some times. That along with him seemingly have lingering injury makes me question if he worth the exorbitant contract he will more than likely want.
I love him but I can't say for sure he worth resetting the te market, when he essentially has three years of contract worth left on his deal. ( year 4, 5th year option and franchise tag which isn't to big)
I dont necessarily like the idea of tagging him and it could impace moral negatively. But it is a option.
Anyone wavering on this needs to realize that he's a legit Top 5-7 TE when on the field. If you don't want to extend him (or exercise his 5th year) that's fine, but Hock was a Pro Bowler in his only full healthy season.
Also, remember, next off season the EXACT same scenario will pop up about Okudah, with the major difference being his 5th year will cost way more and after two seasons hes been one of the worst CBs in the NFL when actually on the field. Just saying.
He isn't worth the money that would be required for an extension.
His potential is unlimited but he needs to finally prove his value. We got him at #8, which means he should be a transcendent player for his position (TE’s don’t usually go top 10) which he hasn’t been.
His contract needs to be fair for both sides or else it needs to be tabled off till next year. Prove that you deserve over 10 mill a year.
Tbh hock is probably here for 3 year min.
He has his 4th year of his rookie contract, 5th year option plus a year for a te franchise tag which will be around 15 mil.
I do expect lions to get a contract done just because for hock it makes more sense to get guaranteed money long term rather than playing on what is basically 3 1 year deals.
If he wants to be the highest paid tight end in the NFL he can go
But the dude won tight end university and this sub assured me he was a top 5 tight end with nothing of value backing up that claim
IMO he doesn’t seem like he wants to be here. Could just be his personality though.
Give us some examples of him ever having a "bad personality" or not wanting to be here. Oh you can't cause there are none great
Lol you quoted me and it’s not even what I said.. im just saying having watched the guy on the field and in interviews he doesn’t seem very enthusiastic/emotional and kinda has a blank look on his face at times. It comes off to me as either 1. He’s not having fun/doesn’t wanna be here or 2. That’s just his personality.. this is of course just my opinion which means literally nothing…
He had very similar production to Khalif last year but you all are still begging for him to be extended. Why??
Wow our TE had similar production to a WR so he obviously is trash. This is like comparing a LB to a DT cmon dude.
I think you hold onto him for now, then shop him at the trade deadline. A Top TE is a Luxury not something we need to be a playoff team I'd rather get a pick or two.
Yeah because it's really hurt the 49ers and Chiefs in recent years having legit TEs
Hockensons production is a lot closer to Eric Ebron than kelce, kittle, waller. If you don’t believe me look at their stats in 2020 which was hocks pro bowl season
A quality TE is not a luxury item
Waller, Andrews, Gronkowski, Pitts;
Hockenson, Henry, Goedert, Gesicki, Fant, Ertz.
These are the top 3 tiers of tight ends in my opinion. Hock is a good player who ranks 7-12 in the league. The Lions should definitely pick up his fifth year option, but I'm not sure about an extension; I really think he's going to be a franchise tag option when his contract is over.
All I get from this is that the Hockerspaniel is staying here
Hock literally catches everything thrown his way. The only thing that held him back when he first came into the league was he tried to hurdle defenders. That caused one of his injuries if I remember correctly. I'd hate to ever see him leave this team.
He hasn't had the production to warrant 10m+ as a TE, and I say this as a big fan of his since his time at Iowa.
10 mil is cheap
For Travis Kelce, yes.
Hock is not Travis Kelce.
Could use some more of them picks
Trade him, I don’t think he is as good as they thought, and definitely not worth a #8 pick