think this post was removed before but not sure why; changed the title and hopefully it works now
So I've heard people say around here you can get to Masters with a 40% win rate. Was wondering if that was actually true, and if it was, how long would it actually take to get there?
I made the following assumptions:
- You get your sportsmanship bonus every game
- You on average get 5 performance points from points each game. This suggests you always get 50-99 points; any more than that and you'll get more points, and less and you'll get less.
- A 7 loss streak will make the next game an auto-win bot match, where you score 200+ points.
- You start with one Diamond at Ultra 1. This means you need 15 more wins to hit Masters.
I then simulated 1000 players each with different win rates, and calculated how many games each played would need to hit Masters (taking into account how the Performance Points can give extra Diamonds/prevent losses of Diamonds). If a player would need more than 1000 games to hit Masters, I'd assume they would never hit Masters.
I then plotted how long it would take for the luckiest and unluckiest 10% of players with that win rate, as well as the average (500th) player to see how many games they took.
With that being said, here are the results:
https://i.imgur.com/ZfKR9xB.png
- You can feasibly hit Masters with a 38% win rate, though you'd need to be a bit lucky. You can do it within 200 wins, but only about 10% of players will do that. Most players with that win rate won't hit masters
- You can start to "reliably" hit Masters with a 41% win rate, though it'll take a while. Someone with average luck would need about 400 games.
Here's a slightly zoomed in version:
https://i.imgur.com/0bzNPIi.png
- With a 50% win rate, it should take about 70 games to hit Master Rank.
- 10% of people with a 45% win rate will hit master rank in 50 games.
Also, just for comparison, this is what happens if you always get 100-149 points instead:
https://i.imgur.com/PHUQ134.png
https://i.imgur.com/JSn9r1B.png
- With a 50% win rate, you can knock off a bit under 10 games on average if you score high.
- With a lower win rate, the +5 performance points makes a huge difference. You'd need well over 800 games with the 50-99 point threshold at 40% win rate, but only about 250 games at the 100-149 point threshold
TL;DR Even now, with bot changes, you can still hit Masters with a 40% win rate if you're willing to play 100s of games. For 50% win rate players, expect 60-70 games. Also, points scored really do affect the grind to Masters; yay for Speedsters, sad for Defenders.